Former President Donald Trump has pledged to enact the largest “mass deportation” effort in history, removing some 11 million immigrants without legal status. Vice President Kamala Harris has vowed to tighten border restrictions while offering pathways to citizenship.
But what would the two presidential nominees’ policies mean in practice for the estimated 676,000 immigrants without legal status in New York? And what would they mean for the recent influx of asylum-seekers in New York City, which has hosted more than 210,000 recently arrived migrants since spring 2022?
To answer these questions, Gothamist spoke with Mario Russell, executive director of the Center for Migration Studies of New York, a Manhattan-based think tank studying international migration.
The below conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
What would the “mass deportation” program promised by Trump, the Republican nominee, actually look like on the ground?
There are very few details and specifics that have been offered as to how this kind of a program would be implemented, which probably is not an accident, because it is in fact an almost impossible program to implement.
We know that to implement a program like this would cost somewhere in the order of a half-trillion dollars, based on a study and report we recently did — and [would require] Memobilisasi personel federal, negara bagian dan lokal (jika bukan militer).
Ini mungkin melibatkan penggerebekan dan penangkapan individu di rumah keluarga dan di tempat kerja. Hal ini dapat dilakukan dengan menggunakan agen Imigrasi dan Bea Cukai federal, atau polisi setempat, untuk membuat profil orang-orang dengan satu atau lain cara.
Mario Russell, executive director of the Center for Migration Studies of New York.
Courtesy of Center for Migration Studies of New York
It would involve the creation of massive detention and deportation camps who knows where, perhaps on the southern [United States] batas.
Hal ini akan melibatkan perpisahan keluarga dan oleh karena itu kebutuhan untuk merawat pasangan yang ditinggalkan dan, tentu saja, anak-anak, 6 juta hingga 8 juta di antaranya adalah warga negara AS, banyak di antaranya akan menjadi yatim piatu jika mereka tinggal di rumah lajang. -rumah tangga orang tua, atau jika tidak ada sertifikat orang tua, dimungkinkan.
Oleh karena itu, dari sudut pandang praktis dan kemanusiaan, biaya yang harus ditanggung sangatlah besar.
Apa dampaknya terhadap perekonomian New York, masyarakat, dan aspek lainnya?
Dampaknya terhadap Kota New York, New York, akan sangat besar.
Populasi yang tidak memiliki dokumen mencapai hampir 5% dari angkatan kerja. Orang-orang yang tidak berdokumen memberikan banyak layanan kepada kami, kepada komunitas kami, kepada komunitas mereka di sektor layanan kesehatan, sektor pengiriman, sektor perhotelan, konstruksi dan pertamanan.
Jadi mereka benar-benar merupakan inti dari beberapa fungsi penting, dan faktanya, seperti yang kita ingat empat tahun lalu, mereka berada di garis depan, bagian dari pekerja inti yang mampu merespons dan mengisi sebagian besar situasi. lowongan.
A long line forms outside the main immigration courthouse in Manhattan in this 2022 photo. Backlogs caused in part by an influx of asylum-seekers have made for long waits for migrants seeking legal help with sundry immigration issues.
Arya Sundaram / Gothamist
We’ve just done a study that shows that the undocumented are in significant numbers among those who fill jobs in developing aspects of the New York state’s economy.
Not only are they critical to what New York state needs in order to continue to run well but also are part of its promise and growth. In other words, they’re involved in parts of the tech industry, a continuing growing and increasing number in the health care industry — all of which are some of the fastest-growing industries in the U.S. and New York state economy.
What will the flow of asylum-seekers into New York City look like under a Trump presidency, versus a Harris presidency?
The data shows that the numbers are decreasing significantly, and I think that would be true under both administrations.
I think the idea and the thrust really behind some of the current Democratic policies and proposals really are moving toward a fairly comprehensive shutdown of the border. And what that means is significantly regulated flow.
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The scene at City Harvest in Brooklyn, hosting the five-week course “Culinary Career Pathways for New New Yorkers,” launched in April by the nonprofit group Hot Bread Kitchen, which trains New Yorkers for jobs in the food industry.
Arun Venugopal / Gothamist
Nominee Harris, the Democrat, has suggested that she would want to sign into law the bipartisan proposal that was put forward about a half a year ago, which really contemplated a fairly dramatic realignment of border policies — including a control of the admission of people, depending on how many were presenting themselves daily to the border.
I think these proposals at some level are good and are important and are necessary. But they are temporary measures, in my opinion, because what they simply do is on the back-end address the movement of people, pathways and solutions for people, in a very temporary sense. But it doesn’t address fundamentally the needs of those who are looking for protection and reunification and opportunities, nor the needs of the United States.
Again, comprehensive reform is what really is the ultimate solution to all of this.
How does Harris’ immigration policies compare to Trump’s?
The Harris administration is not proposing a mass deportation, so that’s a significant difference.
And she would leave intact, of course, those who have been here for five, 10, 15, 20 and even up to 30 years. And I think it’s expressly said they would be seeking some kind of way forward for Dreamers and others as well, which has also proved to be an elusive goal for many over the years.
Under either candidate, would New York City be getting more help in resettling asylum-seekers, as Mayor Eric Adams has requested?
The question of processing and resettlement ultimately probably would be about the same, because I think these are sort of interior questions.
I don’t think that the city is going to receive any much greater or more assistance to do that job under the Trump administration as they would necessarily under a Harris administration.
The resettlement of asylum-seekers in the interior has never been seen, perceived or handled as a federal initiative or policy. That’s really only a matter that has affected refugees who come with status.
Where people live and what kind of care they receive while they’re waiting for their asylum case to be processed has in fact, in some sense, never been at the fore of any local, state or municipal government, and certainly not among the concerns of the federal government.
So whether or not the Harris administration would choose to provide some resources, I tend to think at this point that’s unlikely, but it’s possible. Certainly it would be encouraged. I think ultimately that’s in the interest across the board to do so.